7 gems of poker magic (or at least math)

I've always enjoyed the game of poker. And I've always loved math. But it is not until recently[1] I have begun to combine the two much. Doing this, I did not really find a simple tutorial suited for me (what I found was either way too basic, way too advanced or did not read really well). I also use the word tutorial for what I was looking for on purpose, even when I am trying to explain math concepts, I hope to do so in a very practical way.

For some of you this set of articles is still going to be too basic, but I also have an ambition to come back with some more advanced pieces later (for instance covering stuff I am discovering when playing around with poker bots and lately reading the old, but still good, Mathematics of Poker book), given I reach that level and also given that I find the time.

Anyway, on to what my so called 7 gems of poker math will cover:

- Basic poker probabilities
- Pot odds
- Open or not - do I have the best hand from this position?
- Implied odds and EV estimation
- Counting combos
- Basic and badass understanding of blockers
- Balance and board coverage

All the content will be for NLH (No Limit Texas Hold'em). I will not explain core poker rules or basic probabilities in the articles, but I will go through the example step by step with a certain degree of hand-holding (no pun intended). I hope I got the balance right and that some of you will enjoy it. For sure it will be a useful exercise for me to structure my thoughts enough to write out the pieces.

Hope this proves useful for someone, please shout out if you have comments or other feedback.

[1] - Well, this set of articles have been in a rough draft state for about five years, so it has been a little while now (and in fact other books have inspired my game more than the good old MoP mentioned above, but I decided to keep it and rather write a separate post on books later). Inspired by making day 2 of the WSOP Main Event at GG yesterday (after double-satelliting in, first USD50 into a USD500 satellite and then from the latter into the actual event), I decided that it would be better to get it out rather than waiting to find time to make it "so, so much better". So here it is!

Startup valuation hype cycle

There is a lot of discussion in the startup community these days about if we are on the top of a hype or close to seeing a bubble burst. From my point of view, running a bootstrapped startup, it is not feeling like VCs are throwing seed money at you. At least not in Norway. But valuations for the "Unicorns", which are truly not common to see just like their fairytale counterparts - even if we forget it when we use them as samples and idols, are surely high.

Anyway, I wanted to share a super fun tongue-in-cheek "press release" from Basecamp. The entire thing reads well and if you are like me, it will give you many giggles, but this is my favorite part:

In order to increase the value of the company, Basecamp has decided to stop generating revenue. “When it comes to valuation, making money is a real obstacle. Our profitability has been a real drag on our valuation,” said Mr. Fried. “Once you have profits, it’s impossible to just make stuff up. That’s why we’re switching to a ‘freeconomics’ model. We’ll give away everything for free and let the market speculate about how much money we could make if we wanted to make money. That way, the sky’s the limit!”

Sounds like a brilliant plan! 

Food for conspiracy theories

So, according to the WSJ Google is buying a maker of solar-powered drones. They are also talking to other companies in the sphere (pun semi-intended, semi-working).

It would not fit very well with the mantra of "Don't do evil" for Larry to go crazy and mount guns on these drones, but even without the craziest ideas it makes me a tiny bit uneasy knowing the same company may know where I am (GPS from mobile phone) and be able to record me from a drone with extremely sharp eyes. That company better have decent privacy policies and be strict with relevant governments and agencies...

Do not tidy up, just don't mess

I met a guy this weekend that was so impressed after inspecting a German factory that will produce machines for them. He asked the guy showing him around what was the secret behind tidying up so well.

He got this answer: We don't ever tidy up. We just don't mess.

And I think he was not even close to joking. Gotta love ze Germans.

In terms of project management and creating software, and maybe life in general - but that might be a tiresome effort, doing it right the first time is something we all strive for. Maybe thinking about not having to clean up the mess can make us get it closer to right, at least?

Startup idea generator

I stumbled across the startup idea generator today. It tweets a brilliant (?) new business idea every five seconds or so. Very much buzzword compliant. Content asymptotic towards zero, but that is not always a problem, is it? Idea 1 025 431 (yep, over a million and counting) was for instance "Enable Twitter-connected technologies to solve the problem of crowdsourced communities".

Come to think of it, some of my e-business students will probably argue that the lingo of business is just like this... I'll share one piece of anonymous feedback from their survey:

• Worst thing about the subject: That we have to have it!
• Best thing about the subject: That we are done with it!

Oh, I like the joy of teaching! :-) Seriously, I think I do - and for the record: There were some encouraging pieces of feedback in there as well.